After entering the fourth quarter, the MMA market opened weakly due to abundant post holiday spot supply. After a broad decline, the market rebounded from late October to early November due to the concentrated maintenance of some factories. The market performance remained strong in the mid to late period. However, after entering December, the situation of weak supply and demand has led to sustained market competition.

Abundant spot goods, weak opening trend

After entering the fourth quarter, the MMA market showed a weak opening due to abundant post holiday spot supply. At this time, the holders of goods are actively shipping spot goods, with weak and declining quotes. The mentality of buying up instead of buying down is spreading in the market. These factors led to the average price of the secondary market in East China dropping from 12150 yuan/ton in September to below 11000 yuan/ton in October.

Mid month supply and demand shortage, market rebound

In the market from the end of October to mid to early November, there was a temporary supply shortage due to the impact of centralized factory maintenance. At the same time, cost support is relatively strong, and prices have started to rebound after a broad decline in October. However, there has not been a significant improvement in the demand side, and there has been a downward trend in some downstream markets during the month. There is still upward resistance in the market in the middle and second half of the month.

MMA factory capacity recovery, market stability

After entering November, there was a significant decrease in supply, which provided some support for prices. Therefore, there was an increase in the market in early November. At this stage, the negative correlation between output and price is particularly prominent. But with some factories resuming operations in late November, the market has become relatively light under the balance of cost and supply and demand.

MMA trend forecast for December

After entering December, the market continued the stalemate of November. The supply side of the market has not fully recovered in the early days, and the market may be dominated by consolidation. There is still support in the cost side of the market in the mid to late period, but there are still variables in the supply side. It is expected that there will be an increase in market supply in December, and the market may have slightly weaker expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor the dynamics of factory equipment.

In early December, the utilization rate of factory capacity increased year-on-year. However, due to some factories mainly supplying contracts and early orders, inventory pressure is still within a controllable range. However, downstream demand has not significantly improved, leading to a slight stalemate in market trading. There is still uncertainty about whether the supply side can be further improved in the middle and later stages. However, the situation of weak demand is difficult to change. The cost side remains a fundamental supporting factor, and there is an expectation of a slight weakening. Expected market volatility may be limited. The fourth quarter market may end with a lackluster outlook, and we will continue to monitor the dynamics of MMA factory installations and shipments.